Studie - UK Retail Futures: Clothing & Footwear 2012

Verdict
04.2008
196 Seiten

 
Typ:
Studie
Verfüg­barkeit:
verfügbar
Regionen/­Länder:
  • Vereinigtes Königreich

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Introduction
Verdict Research: The UK clothing & footwear sector has undergone a major repositioning since the millennium because of price deflation. Power has shifted from the traditional middle market retailers to volume, price-led retailers and more premium niche brands. This report highlights the trends and indicates both the challenges retailers face and the opportunities available.

Scope
Five-year forecasts for expenditure, inflation and volume growth in clothing, womenswear, menswear, childrenswear, accessories & footwear.

Five-year forecasts for clothing and footwear specialists' sales, store numbers, retail space and sales densities.

Channel of distribution forecasts for specialists, grocers, department stores, home shopping and other non-specialists.

Outlook for both clothing and footwear specialists and a comprehensive analysis of the key issues.

Report Highlights
Growth is set to slow down over the next five years to 17.0% and price deflation will come to an end in 2010.

The influx of new space will make it hard to achieve like-for-like growth, but will provide opportunities to relocate to larger stores in higher footfall locations. This will allow clothing specialists to widen their ranges further, which will put footwear specialists under greater pressure.

Value retailers will account for a quarter of all spending in the clothing & footwear market by 2012.

Reasons to Purchase
Using reliable, authoritative and robust forecasts to make strategic plans with confidence.

Incentivise managers to outperform using independent growth forecasts.

Evaluate your current positioning on the basis of future growth opportunities and realign where necessary to maximise growth prospects.
Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5

Key Findings 5

Main Conclusions 6

CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY 13

Expenditure Summary 13

Specialists Summaries 16

CHAPTER 3 KEY MARKET ISSUES 19

Demographic Changes 19

Convenience 22

Polarisation Risk to Midmarket 23

Impact of Seasonality - Greater Flexibility 26

Store Expansion and Investment 29

CHAPTER 4 CLOTHING SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK 32

Key Issues 32

Retail Sales & Sources of Sales Growth 35

Retail Sales & Sources of Sales Growth 35

Share of Total Sales & Store Numbers 37

Space Growth 38

Sales Densities 40

CHAPTER 5 FOOTWEAR SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK 42

Key Issues 42

Retail Sales & Sources of Sales Growth 44

Share of Total Sales & Store Numbers 46

Space Growth 47

Sales Densities 49

CHAPTER 6 CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION 51

Sales & Spending 51

Forecast Changes for Major Channels 54

Clothing Market Shares 57

Footwear Market Shares 59

CHAPTER 7 CATEGORY FORECAST 61

Expenditure Summary 61

Expenditure Analysis 62

Expenditure Growth 69

Clothing 72

Womenswear 75

Women's Outerwear 78

Women's Underwear 81

Menswear 84

Men's Outerwear 87

Men's Underwear 90

Childrenswear 92

Girlswear 94

Boyswear 97

Infantswear 100

Accessories 103

Footwear 106

CHAPTER 8 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS 109

Key Messages 109

Gross Domestic Product - GDP 114

How does it affect retail? 114

What's happened? 115

What will happen? 115

Earnings Growth 116

How does it affect retail? 117

What's happened? 118

What will happen? 118

Real Household Disposable Income 120

How does it affect retail? 120

What's happened? 121

What will happen? 121

Employment 122

How does it affect retail? 123

What's happened? 123

What will happen? 124

Inflation 126

How does it affect retail? 127

What's happened? 127

What will happen? 128

Exchange Rates 129

How do they affect retail? 129

What's happened? 129

What will happen? 130

Interest Rates 131

How do they affect retail? 131

What's happened? 132

What will happen? 133

Savings Ratio 134

How does it affect retail? 134

What's happened? 135

What will happen? 135

Consumer Debt 136

How does it affect retail? 136

What's happened? 137

What will happen? 137

Equities 138

How does it affect retail? 138

What's happened? 139

What will happen? 140

House Price Inflation 140

How does it affect retail? 140

What's happened? 141

What will happen? 141

Housing Equity Withdrawal 142

How does it affect retail? 142

What's happened? 143

What will happen? 144

Housing Transactions 144

How does it affect retail? 144

What's happened? 145

What will happen? 146

CHAPTER 9 UK RETAILING FORECASTS 147

Key Indicators 147

Retail Expenditure 1997-2012 149

Sales by Location 2007-2012 156

Sources of Growth 1997-2012 161

Store Numbers by Location 1997-2012 163

Space by Location 1997-2012 166

Sales Density by Location 1997-2012 170

Average Store Size 1997-2012 172

Average Store Sales 1997-2012 174

Online Retail Spending 176

CHAPTER 10 GLOSSARY 179

Terminology 179

Market Definition 180

Location Definitions 181

Town Centre 181

Out-of-town 181

Neighbourhood 181

Non-store Retail 182

Forecasting Methodology 182

Abbreviations 184

List of Tables

Table 1: Clothing & footwear expenditure summary 2002, 2007 & 2012 13

Table 2: Clothing summary 2002, 2007 & 2012 17

Table 3: Footwear summary 2002, 2007 & 2012 18

Table 4: The impact of rising costs on demographic groups and its affect on the clothing and footwear market 2007-2012 21

Table 5: Effect of seasonality - issues for clothing and footwear retailers 2008 27

Table 6: Shopping Center Developments 2008-2012 30

Table 7: Clothing specialists sales 1997-2012 35

Table 8: Sources of growth for clothing specialists 1997-2012 36

Table 9: Total selling space for clothing specialists 1997-2012 39

Table 10: Footwear specialists sales 1997-2012 44

Table 11: Sources of growth for footwear specialists 1997-2012 45

Table 12: Total selling space for footwear specialists 1997-2012 48

Table 13: Clothing and Footwear channels of distribution by retailer type 2006, 2007 and 2012e 53

Table 14: Clothing market shares 2003-2008e 57

Table 15: Footwear market shares 2003-2008e 59

Table 16: Clothing and footwear expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 61

Table 17: Clothing & footwear expenditure analysis 2007-2012 62

Table 18: Total clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 69

Table 19: Total clothing expenditure 1997-2012 72

Table 20: Womenswear expenditure 1997-2012 75

Table 21: Women's outerwear expenditure 1997-2012 78

Table 22: Women's underwear expenditure 1997-2012 81

Table 23: Menswear expenditure 1997-2012 84

Table 24: Men's outerwear expenditure 1997-2012 87

Table 25: Men's underwear expenditure 1997-2012 90

Table 26: Childrenswear expenditure 1997-2012 92

Table 27: Girlswear expenditure 1997-2012 94

Table 28: Boyswear expenditure 1997-2012 97

Table 29: Infantswear expenditure 1997-2012 100

Table 30: Accessories expenditure 1997-2012 103

Table 31: Footwear expenditure 1997-2012 106

Table 32: Economic drivers for retail 2008 109

Table 33: Measures of inflation 2008 126

Table 34: UK retailing forecasts summary 2007-2012 147

Table 35: Forecast chronology 2008-2012 148

Table 36: Total consumer retail expenditure 1997-2012 149

Table 37: Sales by location 1997-2012 158

Table 38: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1997-2012 161

Table 39: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1997-2012 162

Table 40: Store numbers 1997-2012 163

Table 41: Space by location 1997-2012 166

Table 42: Sales densities by location at current prices 1997-2012 170

Table 43: Average store size by location 1997-2012 172

Table 44: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1997-2012 175

Table 45: Clothing & footwear market definition 2008 180

List of Figures

Figure 1: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 15

Figure 2: Clothing & footwear specialists growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 16

Figure 3: UK population by age group 2007 and forecast 2012 19

Figure 4: Clothing & footwear market split by value, mid and premium 24

Figure 5: Clothing specialists sales as a % of total retail consumer spending 1997-2012 37

Figure 6: Clothing specialists store numbers (000) 1997-2012 37

Figure 7: Space growth for clothing specialists 1997-2012 38

Figure 8: Clothing specialists sales densities at current prices 1997-2012 40

Figure 9: Clothing specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 41

Figure 10: Footwear specialists sales as a % of total retail consumer spending 1997-2012 46

Figure 11: Footwear specialists outlet numbers (000) 1997-2012 46

Figure 12: Space growth for footwear specialists 1997-2012 47

Figure 13: Footwear specialists sales densities at current prices 1997-2012 49

Figure 14: Footwear specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 50

Figure 15: Clothing & footwear channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 52

Figure 16: Changes in shares of clothing & footwear market 2012 on 2007 54

Figure 17: Clothing retailers change in market share 2007e on 2002 58

Figure 18: Footwear retailers change in market share 2007e on 2002 60

Figure 19: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth rates 1997-02, 2002-07 & 2007-12 68

Figure 20: Clothing & footwear expenditure as a % of total spending 1997-2012 70

Figure 21: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 71

Figure 22: Clothing expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear spending 1997-2012 73

Figure 23: Clothing expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 74

Figure 24: Womenswear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 76

Figure 25: Womenswear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 77

Figure 26: Women's outerwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 79

Figure 27: Women's outerwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 80

Figure 28: Women's underwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 82

Figure 29: Women's underwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 83

Figure 30: Menswear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 85

Figure 31: Menswear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 86

Figure 32: Men's outerwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 88

Figure 33: Men's outerwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 89

Figure 34: Men's underwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 91

Figure 35: Men's underwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 91

Figure 36: Childrenswear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 93

Figure 37: Childrenswear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 93

Figure 38: Girlswear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 95

Figure 39: Girlswear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 96

Figure 40: Boyswear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 98

Figure 41: Boyswear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012e 99

Figure 42: Infantswear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 101

Figure 43: Infantswear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 102

Figure 44: Accessories expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 104

Figure 45: Accessories expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 105

Figure 46: Footwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 107

Figure 47: Footwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012 108

Figure 48: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 114

Figure 49: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 116

Figure 50: Tax & Prices vs Average Earnings 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 117

Figure 51: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 120

Figure 52: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 122

Figure 53: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 123

Figure 54: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 126

Figure 55: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 129

Figure 56: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast by quarter for 2008 131

Figure 57: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 132

Figure 58: Savings ratio 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 134

Figure 59: Growth in consumer debt 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 136

Figure 60: FTSE 100 Index 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 139

Figure 61: UK house price inflation 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 140

Figure 62: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England & Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012 142

Figure 63: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 145

Figure 64: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 151

Figure 65: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 153

Figure 66: Consumer, retail and non-retail spending trends % 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 154

Figure 67: Retail sales by location 2007 and 2012 156

Figure 68: Share of turnover by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 159

Figure 69: % share of store numbers by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 165

Figure 70: % share of space by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 167

Figure 71: Online retail spending 1997-2012 176

Figure 72: Verdict forecasting methodology 183

* Alle Preise sind netto ausgewiesen. In Abhängigkeit von Ihrer Rechnungsanschrift ist hierauf noch USt. zu entrichten (Deutschland z.Z. 19%). Unser Angebot richtet sich ausschließlich an Unternehmen, Gewerbetreibende und Freiberufler.

 

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