Studie - The Future of HIV Therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, Competitive Benchmarking, Product Pipeline and Deals Analysis

The Future of HIV Therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, Competitive Benchmarking, Product Pipeline and Deals Analysis

Summary

GBI Research, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research “The Future of HIV Therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, Competitive Benchmarking, Product Pipeline and Deals Analysis.” The report provides in-depth analysis of unmet needs, drivers and barriers that impact the global HIV therapeutics market. The report analyzes the markets for HIV therapeutics in the US, the top five countries in Europe (the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and Japan. Treatment usage patterns, sales, price and volume are forecast until 2015 for the key geographies. Further, the report provides competitive benchmarking for the leading companies and also analyzes the mergers, acquisitions and licensing agreements that shape the global market.

This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

Scope

The scope of this report includes:
- Annualized market data for the HIV therapeutics market from 2000 to 2008, forecast forward to 2015
- Analysis of the HIV therapeutics market in the leading geographies of the world, which include the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Japan
- Market characterization of the HIV therapeutics market including market size, annual cost of therapy, sales volume and treatment usage patterns
- Key drivers and barriers that have a significant impact on the market
- Coverage of pipeline molecules in various phases of drug development
- Competitive benchmarking of leading companies. The key companies studied in this report are Gilead Sciences Inc, GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Abbott Laboratories, Merck & Co and Pfizer Inc
- Key M&A activities, licensing agreements, that have taken place between 2008 and 2009 in the global HIV therapeutics market

Reasons to buy

The report will enhance your decision making capability. It will allow you to
- Align product portfolio to the markets with high growth potential
- Develop market-entry and market expansion strategies by identifying the leading therapeutic segments and geographic markets poised for strong growth
- Reinforce R&D pipelines by identifying new target mechanisms which can produce first in class molecules with more efficiency and better safety
- Develop key strategic initiatives by understanding key focus areas of leading companies
- Exploit in-licensing and out-licensing opportunities by identifying products that could fill portfolio gaps

Companies mentioned:
Gilead
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS)
Abbott Laboratories
Merck
Pfizer

Executive Summary
1 Global HIV Therapeutics Market
The global HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) infection market will continue to grow between
2008 and 2015 at a slower rate due to a series of patent expiries in the period. The market is
characterized by a high unmet need of drugs which can cure the disease. Highly Active Retroviral
Therapy (HAART) which requires patients to take different classes of drugs has however in
achieving near zero levels of HIV in infected people. Increased uptake of HAART and increasing
awareness (which leads to increased treatment seeking) will drive the market. HAART is a
rigorous regime which increases the average cost of HIV treatment. The HIV pipeline focuses on
multiple classes of drugs which can help in targeting resistant HIV. Therefore despite challenges
such as the lack of a cure and the risk of building drug resistance, the HIV market will continue to
grow at a moderate rate.
1.1 The HIV Market will Grow Moderately Driven Decreased Mortality and
Increased Usage; Growth Will be Impacted by Patent Expiries
The HIV market is growing moderately and is dominated by the US. The growth rate is likely to
decline from 2012 onwards due to the impact of patent expiry of key drugs. However, migration to
new branded drugs is likely to minimize the impact of generics, which currently account for
approximately X% of the market. The global HIV therapeutics market is expected to grow at a
CAGR of X% from $X billion in 2008 to $X billion in 2015. This growth will be driven by increases
in the prescription rate and increased usage of newer drugs such as Atripla as part of HAART. The
HIV market is growing at a slower rate compared to previous years. This is primarily due to the
patent expiry of major drugs such as Sustiva and Combivir in 2012. Some other drugs such as
Epivir, Epzicom, Trizivir, Ziagen, Invirase and Lexiva will go off-patent in 2009 and 2010. However
the impact of patent expiraties will be offset by the increased usage of newer drugs which are
more effective in tackling the progression of the disease. The global sales of new drugs such as
Atripla have increased by a CAGR of X% over the last three years; other drugs such as Trizivir,
Relenza, Epivir have declined by CAGRs of X%, X% and X% respectively. Approximately X million
people infected with HIV received antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2008 for an average cost of
therapy of $x per year. The number of people taking treatment for HIV is increasing at a rate of x%
per year. In addition, the average annual cost of therapy for ART is forecast to increase at a higher
rate over the next three years with an expected price decline from 2012 onwards due to a series of
patent expirations. However, the impact of patent expiry is likely to reduce in 2015.The late stage
pipeline drugs such as Rilpivirine by Tibotec Pharmaceuticals and Vicriviroc by Schering-Plough
are expected to enter the market later in the 2008–2015 period and will positively impact the
market. As a result, the HIV market value is going to see a moderate increase over the time period
2008-2015.
The US is the largest HIV market of the top countries covered. It accounts for approximately X% of
the total market and is followed by Europe, which comprises the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and
Germany. Japan accounts for approximately X% of the market and will experience the highest growth in the geographies studied. Higher growth in the Japanese HIV market will be driven by an
increase in the number of people affected by the virus and the number of people getting diagnosed
and subsequently starting treatment. Currently Japan has very low prevalence levels.

1.2 The Unmet Need for a Cost Effective Cure is Unlikely to be Fulfilled in the
Coming Years
The HIV market needs drugs which are cost effective and can cure the disease. The market has
more than 30 approved products for the treatment of HIV infection and acquired immune
deficiency syndrome (AIDS). However, despite that, the HIV market has high unmet need in terms
of drug efficacy as none of the current drugs provide a cure for the infection. All classes of drugs
are relatively high on safety but low on efficacy. This is because there is no cure for the infection in
the market. However some new combination drugs have improved the efficacy in terms of lowering
HIV levels in body. Therefore drugs compete on efficacy in terms of delaying progression of the
disease and combination drugs are considered much better in this regard. The HIV drugs on the
market are considered safe as the side effects associated with HIV drugs are minimal when
compared with the effects if progress of the disease itself were left unchecked. The disease is fatal
and is associated with many opportunistic infections which decrease the quality of life led by a person. Therefore, a few side effects of some antiretroviral drugs are considered relatively
insignificant. The pipeline for HIV drug is not innovative as drugs in development are similar to the
drugs currently in the market. However a few relatively newer classes of drugs in development can
help to tackle the problem of resistance building. Therefore, while the unmet need for the HIV
market will remain, some newer drugs may offer better treatment for drug-resistance HIV or have
better efficacy in terms of lower dosage frequencies to improve patient compliance and improve
treatment quality.

1.3 The HIV Therapeutics Market is Concentrated, with the Top Three Companies
Contributing Approximately 67% Market Share
The top five companies account for approximately X% of the worldwide HIV therapeutics market.
The companies also maintain leadership in the seven countries covered. Generics play a minor
role in the market, allowing branded drugs to take the major shares. The competitive landscape of
the HIV therapeutics market is also changing with the introduction of newer cross class
combination drugs. The success of recent drug launches has helped Company 1 to take the
leading position in the market from Company 2, which was the market leader until 2006. Company
1 will continue to lead the market in the 2008–2015 period due to strong products which have
growth potential and the lack of many late stage promising drugs in the industry pipeline. The entry
of any new drugs from competitors towards the end of the 2008–2015 period can impact its
leadership position. Company 1 is followed by Company 2 and Company 3 which together hold
about X% of the market. In 2008, Truvada was the leading HIV therapy brand with an approximate
global sales value of $X billion followed by Atripla which recorded sales value of $X billion globally.

1.4 Market Participants in the HIV market Have Formed Strategic Agreements to
Strengthen Market Position
The HIV market has been moderately active since 2008. The market participants formed a few
strategic partnerships and entered into licensing activities in order to improve their market position.
The consolidated market and the dominance of single player in the market resulted in major
merger and acquisition activity, whereby GlaxoSmithKline, the second largest HIV player and
Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical company merged their HIV businesses.
The new company focuses only on HIV in order to compete better with Company 1, which has
recently become the market leader. The largest HIV market, the US, was the most active in
mergers and acquisition (M&A) and licensing activities. Licensing activities accounted for about x%
of all deals in the market followed by research collaboration with academic and other institutions
which accounted for approximately x% of the total market deals. As the market is highly
consolidated only a few M&A activities took place, accounting for x% of total deal activity in the
market. The competitive HIV market will experience collaboration and increased M&A activities
even as players look to strengthen their market positions.

13.3 Research Methodology
GBI Research’s dedicated Research and Analysis Teams consists of experienced professionals
with a pedigree in marketing, market research, consulting background in the medical devices
industry and advanced statistical expertise.
GBI Research adheres to the Codes of Practice of the Market Research Society
and the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals.
All GBI Research databases are continuously updated and revised.

13.3.1 Coverage
The objective of updating GBI Research’s coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up to
date vision of the industry possible.
Changes to the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company,
association and competitor sources.
Company coverage is based on three key factors: Revenues, products and media
attention/innovation/ market potential.
 The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and governmental, are
gathered and used to prioritize coverage; and
 Companies which are making the news, or which are of particular interest due to their
innovative approach are prioritized.
GBI Research aims to cover all major news events and deals in the pharmaceutical industry,
updated on a daily basis.

13.3.2 Secondary Research
The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources
being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market.
The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:
 Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor
presentations and SEC Filings;
 Industry trade journals, scientific journals and other technical literature;
 Internal and external proprietary databases;
 Relevant patent and regulatory databases;
 National government documents, statistical databases and market reports;
 Procedure registries; and
 News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the
market.
13.3.3 Primary Research
GBI Research conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and
commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the
following functions:
 It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends,
competitive landscape, future outlook etc;
 Helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings; and
 Further develops the Analysis Team’s expertise and market understanding.
Primary research involves e-mail interactions, telephonic interviews as well as face-to-face
interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies.
The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:
 Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, marketing/product managers, market intelligence
managers and national sales managers;
 Hospital stores, laboratories, pharmacies, distributors and para-medics;
 Outside experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts specializing in
specific medical equipment markets; and
 Key opinion leaders: physicians and surgeons specializing in different therapeutic areas
corresponding to different kinds of medical equipment.
13.3.4 Forecasts
13.3.4.1 Epidemiology-based Forecasting
The forecasting model used at GBI Research makes use of epidemiology data gathered from
research publications and primary interviews with physicians to represent the treatment flow
patterns for individual diseases and therapies. The market for any disease segment is directly
proportional to the volume of units sold and the price per unit.
Sales = Volume of Units sold  Price per Unit
The volume of units sold is calculated on the average dosage regimen for that disease, duration of
treatment and number of patients who are prescribed drug treatment (prescription population).

Prescription population is calculated as the percentage of population diagnosed with a disease
(diagnosis population). Diagnosis population is the population diagnosed with a disease expressed
as a percentage of population that is treatment seeking treatment (Treatment seeking population).
Prevalence of a disease (diseased population) is the percentage of the total population who suffer
from a disease/condition.
Data on treatment seeking rate, diagnosis rate and prescription rate, if unavailable from research
publications, are gathered from interviews with physicians and are used to estimate the patient
volumes for the disease under consideration. Therapy uptake and compliance data are fitted in the
forecasting model to account for patient switching and compliance behavior.
To account for differences in patient affordability of drugs across various geographies,
macroeconomic data such as inflation and GDP; and healthcare indicators such as healthcare
spending, insurance coverage and average income per individual are used.
Average cost of treatment is calculated using product purchase frequency and the average price of
the therapy. Product purchase frequency is calculated from the dosage data available for the
therapies and drug prices are gathered from public sources.
The epidemiology-based forecasting model uses a bottom-up methodology and it makes use of
estimations in the absence of data from research publications. Such estimations may result in a
final market value different from the actual value. To correct this ‘gap’ the forecasting model uses
‘triangulation’ with the help of base year sales data (from company annual reports, internal and
external databases) and sales estimations.
Analogous forecasting methodology
Analogous forecasting methodology is used to account for introduction of new products, patent
expiries of branded products and subsequent introduction of generics. Historic data for new
product launches and generics penetration are used to arrive at robust forecasts. increase or
decrease of prevalence rates, treatment seeking rate, diagnosis rate and prescription rate are
fitted into the forecasting model to estimate market growth rate.
The proprietary model enables GBI Research to account for the impact of individual drivers and
restraints in the growth of the market. The year of impact and the extent of impact are quantified in
the forecasting model to provide close-to-accurate data sets.
Diseased Population
The diseased population for any indication is the prevalence. The prevalence rates are usually
obtained from various journals, online publications, sources such as World Health Organization
(WHO) or associations and foundation websites for that particular disease.
Treatment Seeking Population
Treatment seeking population is always calculated as a percentage of prevalence. The number
denotes the actual number of patients who are going to hospitals to get diagnosis report for any disease. The treatment seeking population is primarily driven by the onset of symptoms, patient
awareness and the severity of the disease.
Diagnosis Population
Out of the patients who undergo diagnostic tests to confirm a disease, only a few people get
diagnosed with the disease. This number as a percentage of treatment seeking population is the
diagnosis rate. The diagnosis population is primarily driven by the sensitivity of the diagnostic
tests, state-of-the-art technology, patient access to these diagnostic tests and cost of the
diagnostic tests.
Prescription Population
For any disease, multiple treatment options exist. For example, in cancer treatment various
treatment options such as surgery, radiation therapy, and drug therapy are available. Prescription
population is defined as the number of patients who are prescribed drug therapy. This is calculated
as a percentage of diagnosis population. The prescription population is primarily driven by the age
at which the disease is diagnosed, the disease stage, patient health and cost of drug treatment.

1 Table of Contents 4 1.1 List of Tables 7 1.2 List of Figures 9 2 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Introduction 10 2.1 GBI Research Report Guidance 11 3 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Overview 12 3.1 Disease Overview 12 3.2 Market Overview 12 4 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Market Characterization 14 4.1 Market Forecasts 14 4.2 Branded Versus Generics 15 4.3 Average Cost of Therapy 15 4.4 Volume 16 4.5 Usage Patterns 18 4.5.1 Diseased Population 18 4.5.2 Treatment Seeking Population 19 4.5.3 Diagnosis Population 20 4.5.4 Prescription Population 21 4.5.5 Usage Patterns 23 4.5.6 Geographical Distribution 24 4.6 HIV Therapeutics Market: Drivers and Restraints 26 4.7 Market Drivers 27 4.7.1 Increase in Awareness Levels of Disease Progression will Lead to Increase in Treatment Seeking and Diagnosed Population 27 4.7.2 New Product Launches with Better Efficacy will Drive the Market By Increasing Uptake 28 4.7.3 Increase in Drug Prices will Be a Key Driver for the Market by Driving Growth in the Next Few Years and Lowering Impact of Generics 29 4.8 Market Restraints 29 4.8.1 Patent Expirations and the Subsequent Entry of Generics will Impact the Market Negatively as Some People will Move to Generic Versions 30 4.8.2 Social Stigma Associated with HIV Leads to Low Rate of Treatment Seeking Thus Impacting the Overall Customer Base 31 4.8.3 Rigorous and Complex Treatment Regimes for Most HIV Therapies Result in Poor Patient Compliance Leading to Reduction in Drug Volumes 31 4.9 Market Trend 32 4.9.1 Incidence and Prevalence Rates are Increasing at a Slow Rate 32 4.9.2 Many New Companies are Actively Pursuing Different Classes of Drugs in Their Pipeline 32 4.9.3 Although DTC Advertising is Aimed at Increasing Awareness, it is Attracting Criticism for Incorrect Depiction of Therapeutic Benefits of Treatment Options 33 4.9.4 Current Reimbursement Scenario is Positive for HIV as Countries Reimburse Almost All of the Costs Associated with HIV Drugs 33 4.9.5 Regulatory Scenario for HIV Drugs is Positive and Many Countries Facilitate Quicker Review for HIV Drug Applications 35 5 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: The US Market 36 5.1 Market Forecasts 36 5.2 Average cost of Therapy 37 5.3 Volume 38 5.4 Usage Patterns 39 5.4.1 Diseased Population 39 5.4.2 Treatment Seeking Population 40 5.4.3 Diagnosis Population 41 5.4.4 Prescription Population 42 5.4.5 Usage Patterns 43 6 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Europe Market 46 6.1 Market Forecasts 46 6.2 Average Cost of Therapy 47 6.3 Volume 49 6.4 Usage patterns 50 6.4.1 Diseased Population 50 6.4.2 Treatment Seeking Population 51 6.4.3 Diagnosis Population 52 6.4.4 Prescription Population 53 6.4.5 Usage Patterns 54 7 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Japan Market 56 7.1 Market Forecasts 56 7.2 Average Cost of Therapy 57 7.3 Volume 58 7.4 Usage Patterns 59 7.4.1 Diseased Population 59 7.4.2 Treatment Seeking Population 60 7.4.3 Diagnosis Population 61 7.4.4 Prescription Population 62 7.4.5 Usage Patterns 63 8 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Unmet Need 65 8.1 Different Classes of Drugs 65 8.1.1 Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NRTIs) 65 8.1.2 Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NRTIs) 65 8.1.3 Protease Inhibitors 66 8.1.4 Viral Fusion (or Entry) Inhibitors 66 8.1.5 HIV Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitors 67 8.1.6 Multi-class Combination Products 67 8.2 Unmet Need Analysis 67 8.2.1 HIV Drugs are Low in Efficacy as None of the Drugs Provide a Cure for the Disease However Newer Multi Class Combination Drugs Can Achieve Undetectable Level of HIV 68 8.2.2 When Compared to the Adverse Symptoms of HIV Infection Progression, the HIV Medications are Relatively Safe and Have Serious Side Effects Rarely 68 8.2.3 Average Cost of HIV Therapy is High, Leading to a Need for a More Cost Effective Treatment Option 68 8.3 Pipeline Analysis 69 8.3.1 Phase I 70 8.3.2 Phase II 71 8.3.3 Phase III 73 9 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Competitive Landscape 75 9.1 Evolving Competitive Landscape 75 9.2 Market Share Analysis 76 9.2.1 Atripla, Truvada and Isentress are the HIV brands that will Drive the Market and Competition 77 9.3 Key Product Analysis 78 9.3.1 Truvada 79 9.3.2 Atripla 79 9.3.3 Viread 79 9.3.4 Isentress 80 9.3.5 Trizivir 80 9.3.6 Kaletra 80 9.3.7 Reyataz 80 9.3.8 Combivir 80 9.3.9 Epzicom/Kivexa 80 9.3.10 Sustiva Franchise 80 9.4 Competitive Profiling 81 9.4.1 Gilead 82 9.4.2 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 83 9.4.3 Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) 84 9.4.4 Abbott Laboratories 85 9.4.5 Merck 87 9.4.6 Pfizer 88 10 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Strategic Consolidations 89 10.1 Overview 89 10.1.1 Total Deals by Type and Geography 89 10.2 Mergers and Acquisitions 89 10.3 Licensing Agreements 91 10.3.1 Preclinical 92 10.3.2 Phase II 93 10.3.3 Phase III 93 10.3.4 Approved 94 11 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Conclusion 95 12 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Appendix 96 12.1 Market Definitions 96 12.2 Abbreviations 96 12.3 Research Methodology 96 12.3.1 Coverage 97 12.3.2 Secondary Research 97 12.3.3 Primary Research 98 12.3.4 Forecasts 98 12.3.5 Expert Panel Validation 100 12.4 Contact Us 101 12.5 Disclaimer 101 12.6 Sources 101 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2000–2008 14 Table 2: HIV Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2008–2015 14 Table 3: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Segmentation ($m), 2000–2008 15 Table 4: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Segmentation ($m), 2008–2015 15 Table 5: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2000-2008 16 Table 6: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2008-2015 16 Table 7: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Volume (million), 2000–2008 17 Table 8: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Volume (million), 2008–2015 17 Table 9: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Diseased Population, 2000–2008 19 Table 10: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Diseased Population, 2008–2015 19 Table 11: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2008 20 Table 12: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Seeking Population, 2008–2015 20 Table 13: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2008 21 Table 14: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Diagnosis Population, 2008–2015 21 Table 15: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Prescription Population, 2000–2008 22 Table 16: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Prescription Population, 2008–2015 22 Table 17: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Usage Patterns, 2000–2008 24 Table 18: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Usage Patterns, 2008–2015 24 Table 19: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Drivers, 2008 27 Table 20: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Restraints, 2008 30 Table 21: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Key Drug Going Off Patent, 2008–15 30 Table 22: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Revenues ($m), 2000–2008 36 Table 23: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Revenue ($m), 2008–2015 37 Table 24: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2000–2008 37 Table 25: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2008–2015 38 Table 26: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Volume (million), 2000–2008 38 Table 27: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Volume (million), 2008–2015 39 Table 28: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Diseased Population, 2000–2008 40 Table 29: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Diseased Population, 2008–2015 40 Table 30: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2008 41 Table 31: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Treatment Seeking Population, 2008–2015 41 Table 32: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2008 42 Table 33: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Diagnosis Population, 2008–2015 42 Table 34: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Prescription Population, 2000–2008 43 Table 35: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Prescription Population, 2008–2015 43 Table 36: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Usage Patterns, 2000–2008 44 Table 37: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Usage Patterns, 2008–2015 45 Table 38: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Revenues ($m), 2000–2008 47 Table 39: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Revenue ($m), 2008–2015 47 Table 40: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Average Cost of Treatment, 2000–2008 48 Table 41: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Average Cost of Treatment, 2008–2015 48 Table 42: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Volume (million), 2000–2008 49 Table 43: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Volume (million), 2008–2015 49 Table 44: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Diseased Population, 2000–2008 50 Table 45: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Diseased Population, 2008–2015 50 Table 46: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2008 51 Table 47: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Treatment Seeking Population, 2008–2015 51 Table 48: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2008 52 Table 49: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Diagnosis Population, 2008–2015 53 Table 50: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Prescription Population, 2000–2008 53 Table 51: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Prescription Population, 2008–2015 54 Table 52: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Usage Patterns, 2000–2008 55 Table 53: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Usage Patterns, 2008–2015 55 Table 54: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Revenue ($m), 2000–2008 57 Table 55: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Revenue ($m), 2008–2015 57 Table 56: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2000–2008 58 Table 57: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2008–2015 58 Table 58: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Volume (million), 2000–2008 59 Table 59: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Volume (million), 2008–2015 59 Table 60: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diseased Population, 2000–2008 60 Table 61: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diseased Population, 2008–2015 60 Table 62: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2008 61 Table 63: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Treatment Seeking Population, 2008–2015 61 Table 64: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2008 62 Table 65: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diagnosis Population, 2008–2015 62 Table 66: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Prescription Population, 2000–2008 63 Table 67: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Prescription Population, 2008–2015 63 Table 68: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Usage Patterns, 2000–2008 64 Table 69: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Usage Patterns, 2008–2015 64 Table 70: HIV Market, Global, Different Classes of Drugs 66 Table 71: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline Analysis, Phase I, 2008 70 Table 72: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline Analysis, Phase II, 2008 71 Table 73: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline Analysis, Phase III, 2008 73 Table 74: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Major Drugs and Manufacturers, 2008 79 Table 75: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Benchmarking Analysis for Top Three Companies, 2008 81 Table 76: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Agreements for Drugs in the Preclinical Stage, 2008 92 Table 77: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Agreements for Drugs in the Phase II, 2008 93 Table 78: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Agreements for Drugs in the Phase III, 2008 93 Table 79: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Licensing Agreements for Approved Drugs, 2008 94 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Overview, 2008 13 Figure 2: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2000-2015 14 Figure 3: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2000-2015 16 Figure 4: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Volume (million), 2000-2015 17 Figure 5: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Diseased Population, 2000–2015 18 Figure 6: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2015 19 Figure 7: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2015 21 Figure 8: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Prescription Population, 2000–2015 22 Figure 9: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Usage Patterns, 2000–2015 23 Figure 10: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Geographical Distribution of Revenues ($m), 2000–2015 25 Figure 11: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Geographical Outlook, 2008 26 Figure 12: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Indicators, 2008 26 Figure 13: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Key Market Events, 2008–2015 32 Figure 14: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Revenue ($m), 2000–2015 36 Figure 15: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2000–2015 37 Figure 16: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Volume (million), 2000–2015 38 Figure 17: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Diseased Population, 2000–2015 39 Figure 18: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2015 40 Figure 19: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2015 41 Figure 20: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Prescription Population, 2000–2015 43 Figure 21: HIV Therapeutics Market, US, Usage Patterns, 2000–2015 44 Figure 22: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Revenue ($m), 2000–2015 47 Figure 23: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Average Cost of Treatment ($), 2000–2015 48 Figure 24: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Volume (million), 2000–2015 49 Figure 25: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Diseased Population, 2000–2015 50 Figure 26: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2015 51 Figure 27: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2015 52 Figure 28: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Prescription Population, 2000–2015 53 Figure 29: HIV Therapeutics Market, Europe, Usage Patterns, 2000–2015 54 Figure 30: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Revenue ($m), 2000–2015 56 Figure 31: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Average Cost of Therapy ($), 2000–2015 57 Figure 32: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Volume (million), 2000–2015 58 Figure 33: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diseased Population, 2000–2015 59 Figure 34: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Treatment Seeking Population, 2000–2015 60 Figure 35: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diagnosis Population, 2000–2015 61 Figure 36: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Prescription Population, 2000–2015 62 Figure 37: HIV Therapeutics Market, Japan, Usage Patterns, 2000–2015 63 Figure 38: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Analysis of Unmet Needs for Major Drug Class, 2008 67 Figure 39: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Pipeline by Phase and Class, 2008 69 Figure 40: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Competitive Analysis of Major Manufacturers with Respect to Revenues, 2006-08 75 Figure 41: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Competitive Analysis of Top 4 Manufacturers, 2006–08 76 Figure 42: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Market Share of Top Manufacturers, 2008 77 Figure 43: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Benchmark of Top 10 Brands – 2008 78 Figure 44: HIV Therapeutics Market, Gilead, HIV Revenue as Percentage of Total Revenue, 2009 82 Figure 45: HIV Therapeutics Market, GSK, HIV Revenue as Percentage of Total Revenue, 2009 83 Figure 46: HIV Therapeutics Market, BMS, HIV Revenue as Percentage of Total Revenue, 2009 85 Figure 47: HIV Therapeutics Market, Abbott, HIV Revenue as Percentage of Total Revenue, 2009 86 Figure 48: HIV Therapeutics Market, Merck, HIV Revenue as Percentage of Total Revenue, 2009 87 Figure 49: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Deals by Geography and Type, 2008 89 Figure 50: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, M&A Deals, 2008 90 Figure 51: HIV Therapeutics Market, Global, Major Licensing Agreements By Phase, 2008-09 91 Figure 52: GBI Research Methodology 97 Figure 53: GBI Research Market Forecasting Model 100

6 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: The US Market The US, with a population of more than xxx million, is the third largest in the world. It also has the highest prevalence of HIV infection of the geographies studied. The country has almost two times the expenditure on HIV therapies than the rest of the world with an average expenditure of about $X billion per year. The US is therefore the largest market for HIV therapeutics and accounts for about X% of the HIV market of seven countries combined – the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan. 6.1 Market Forecasts The US HIV therapeutics market generated revenues of about $X billion in 2008 growing at about X% over 2007 revenues of approximately $X billion. 9.2 Unmet Need Analysis The HIV market faces high unmet need in terms of the efficacy and cost effectiveness of drugs. At present there is no cure available in the market for the HIV infection. The unmet needs in the HIV market can be studied by understanding the safety, efficacy and cost effectiveness of a drug class. HIV drugs do not cure the infection creating an unmet need for efficacious drugs in the market. Most drug classes are considered high on safety but low on cost effectiveness. Such a market situation is creating a race for the next blockbuster in the market with better efficacy and higher cost effectiveness. There are several classes of drug available in the market, which use various mechanisms of action to combat HIV. HIV medications are used to combat the virus by either preventing it from copying itself or by blocking its access to cells. Therefore the drugs generally try to delay or stop the replication process for HIV but do not remove the infection from the body. 13 Global HIV Therapeutics Market: Appendix 13.1 Market Definitions HIV market: HIV market refers to the market for drugs used for the treatment of HIV infection in the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan. Prevalence Population: Prevalence population is estimated number of HIV infected people living with HIV at any given point of time in a year. Treatment Seeking Rate: Treatment seeking rate is the percentage of prevalence population that seeks treatment for HIV symptoms Treatment Seeking Population: Treatment seeking population is the number of people seeking treatment for HIV symptoms Diagnosis Rate and Population: Diagnosis rate is the percentage of treatment seeking population that is diagnosed with HIV; diagnosis population refers to the number of people that are diagnosed with HIV infection. Prescription Rate and Population: Prescription rate is the percentage of diagnosis population that is prescribed HIV medication; prescription population refers to the number of people that are on HIV medication.

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