Studie - The Future of HIV Therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, Competitive Benchmarking, Product Pipeline and Deals Analysis
GBI Research12 / 2009
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GBI Research, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research “The Future of HIV Therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, Competitive Benchmarking, Product Pipeline and Deals Analysis.” The report provides in-depth analysis of unmet needs, drivers and barriers that impact the global HIV therapeutics market. The report analyzes the markets for HIV therapeutics in the US, the top five countries in Europe (the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and Japan. Treatment usage patterns, sales, price and volume are forecast until 2015 for the key geographies. Further, the report provides competitive benchmarking for the leading companies and also analyzes the mergers, acquisitions and licensing agreements that shape the global market.
This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.
The scope of this report includes:
- Annualized market data for the HIV therapeutics market from 2000 to 2008, forecast forward to 2015
- Analysis of the HIV therapeutics market in the leading geographies of the world, which include the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Japan
- Market characterization of the HIV therapeutics market including market size, annual cost of therapy, sales volume and treatment usage patterns
- Key drivers and barriers that have a significant impact on the market
- Coverage of pipeline molecules in various phases of drug development
- Competitive benchmarking of leading companies. The key companies studied in this report are Gilead Sciences Inc, GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Abbott Laboratories, Merck & Co and Pfizer Inc
- Key M&A activities, licensing agreements, that have taken place between 2008 and 2009 in the global HIV therapeutics market
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Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS)
1 Global HIV Therapeutics Market
The global HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) infection market will continue to grow between
2008 and 2015 at a slower rate due to a series of patent expiries in the period. The market is
characterized by a high unmet need of drugs which can cure the disease. Highly Active Retroviral
Therapy (HAART) which requires patients to take different classes of drugs has however in
achieving near zero levels of HIV in infected people. Increased uptake of HAART and increasing
awareness (which leads to increased treatment seeking) will drive the market. HAART is a
rigorous regime which increases the average cost of HIV treatment. The HIV pipeline focuses on
multiple classes of drugs which can help in targeting resistant HIV. Therefore despite challenges
such as the lack of a cure and the risk of building drug resistance, the HIV market will continue to
grow at a moderate rate.
1.1 The HIV Market will Grow Moderately Driven Decreased Mortality and
Increased Usage; Growth Will be Impacted by Patent Expiries
The HIV market is growing moderately and is dominated by the US. The growth rate is likely to
decline from 2012 onwards due to the impact of patent expiry of key drugs. However, migration to
new branded drugs is likely to minimize the impact of generics, which currently account for
approximately X% of the market. The global HIV therapeutics market is expected to grow at a
CAGR of X% from $X billion in 2008 to $X billion in 2015. This growth will be driven by increases
in the prescription rate and increased usage of newer drugs such as Atripla as part of HAART. The
HIV market is growing at a slower rate compared to previous years. This is primarily due to the
patent expiry of major drugs such as Sustiva and Combivir in 2012. Some other drugs such as
Epivir, Epzicom, Trizivir, Ziagen, Invirase and Lexiva will go off-patent in 2009 and 2010. However
the impact of patent expiraties will be offset by the increased usage of newer drugs which are
more effective in tackling the progression of the disease. The global sales of new drugs such as
Atripla have increased by a CAGR of X% over the last three years; other drugs such as Trizivir,
Relenza, Epivir have declined by CAGRs of X%, X% and X% respectively. Approximately X million
people infected with HIV received antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2008 for an average cost of
therapy of $x per year. The number of people taking treatment for HIV is increasing at a rate of x%
per year. In addition, the average annual cost of therapy for ART is forecast to increase at a higher
rate over the next three years with an expected price decline from 2012 onwards due to a series of
patent expirations. However, the impact of patent expiry is likely to reduce in 2015.The late stage
pipeline drugs such as Rilpivirine by Tibotec Pharmaceuticals and Vicriviroc by Schering-Plough
are expected to enter the market later in the 2008–2015 period and will positively impact the
market. As a result, the HIV market value is going to see a moderate increase over the time period
The US is the largest HIV market of the top countries covered. It accounts for approximately X% of
the total market and is followed by Europe, which comprises the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and
Germany. Japan accounts for approximately X% of the market and will experience the highest growth in the geographies studied. Higher growth in the Japanese HIV market will be driven by an
increase in the number of people affected by the virus and the number of people getting diagnosed
and subsequently starting treatment. Currently Japan has very low prevalence levels.
1.2 The Unmet Need for a Cost Effective Cure is Unlikely to be Fulfilled in the
The HIV market needs drugs which are cost effective and can cure the disease. The market has
more than 30 approved products for the treatment of HIV infection and acquired immune
deficiency syndrome (AIDS). However, despite that, the HIV market has high unmet need in terms
of drug efficacy as none of the current drugs provide a cure for the infection. All classes of drugs
are relatively high on safety but low on efficacy. This is because there is no cure for the infection in
the market. However some new combination drugs have improved the efficacy in terms of lowering
HIV levels in body. Therefore drugs compete on efficacy in terms of delaying progression of the
disease and combination drugs are considered much better in this regard. The HIV drugs on the
market are considered safe as the side effects associated with HIV drugs are minimal when
compared with the effects if progress of the disease itself were left unchecked. The disease is fatal
and is associated with many opportunistic infections which decrease the quality of life led by a person. Therefore, a few side effects of some antiretroviral drugs are considered relatively
insignificant. The pipeline for HIV drug is not innovative as drugs in development are similar to the
drugs currently in the market. However a few relatively newer classes of drugs in development can
help to tackle the problem of resistance building. Therefore, while the unmet need for the HIV
market will remain, some newer drugs may offer better treatment for drug-resistance HIV or have
better efficacy in terms of lower dosage frequencies to improve patient compliance and improve
1.3 The HIV Therapeutics Market is Concentrated, with the Top Three Companies
Contributing Approximately 67% Market Share
The top five companies account for approximately X% of the worldwide HIV therapeutics market.
The companies also maintain leadership in the seven countries covered. Generics play a minor
role in the market, allowing branded drugs to take the major shares. The competitive landscape of
the HIV therapeutics market is also changing with the introduction of newer cross class
combination drugs. The success of recent drug launches has helped Company 1 to take the
leading position in the market from Company 2, which was the market leader until 2006. Company
1 will continue to lead the market in the 2008–2015 period due to strong products which have
growth potential and the lack of many late stage promising drugs in the industry pipeline. The entry
of any new drugs from competitors towards the end of the 2008–2015 period can impact its
leadership position. Company 1 is followed by Company 2 and Company 3 which together hold
about X% of the market. In 2008, Truvada was the leading HIV therapy brand with an approximate
global sales value of $X billion followed by Atripla which recorded sales value of $X billion globally.
1.4 Market Participants in the HIV market Have Formed Strategic Agreements to
Strengthen Market Position
The HIV market has been moderately active since 2008. The market participants formed a few
strategic partnerships and entered into licensing activities in order to improve their market position.
The consolidated market and the dominance of single player in the market resulted in major
merger and acquisition activity, whereby GlaxoSmithKline, the second largest HIV player and
Pfizer, the largest pharmaceutical company merged their HIV businesses.
The new company focuses only on HIV in order to compete better with Company 1, which has
recently become the market leader. The largest HIV market, the US, was the most active in
mergers and acquisition (M&A) and licensing activities. Licensing activities accounted for about x%
of all deals in the market followed by research collaboration with academic and other institutions
which accounted for approximately x% of the total market deals. As the market is highly
consolidated only a few M&A activities took place, accounting for x% of total deal activity in the
market. The competitive HIV market will experience collaboration and increased M&A activities
even as players look to strengthen their market positions.
13.3 Research Methodology
GBI Research’s dedicated Research and Analysis Teams consists of experienced professionals
with a pedigree in marketing, market research, consulting background in the medical devices
industry and advanced statistical expertise.
GBI Research adheres to the Codes of Practice of the Market Research Society
and the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals.
All GBI Research databases are continuously updated and revised.
The objective of updating GBI Research’s coverage is to ensure that it represents the most up to
date vision of the industry possible.
Changes to the industry taxonomy are built on the basis of extensive research of company,
association and competitor sources.
Company coverage is based on three key factors: Revenues, products and media
attention/innovation/ market potential.
The estimated revenues of all major companies, including private and governmental, are
gathered and used to prioritize coverage; and
Companies which are making the news, or which are of particular interest due to their
innovative approach are prioritized.
GBI Research aims to cover all major news events and deals in the pharmaceutical industry,
updated on a daily basis.
13.3.2 Secondary Research
The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources
being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market.
The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to:
Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor
presentations and SEC Filings;
Industry trade journals, scientific journals and other technical literature;
Internal and external proprietary databases;
Relevant patent and regulatory databases;
National government documents, statistical databases and market reports;
Procedure registries; and
News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the
13.3.3 Primary Research
GBI Research conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and
commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the
It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends,
competitive landscape, future outlook etc;
Helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings; and
Further develops the Analysis Team’s expertise and market understanding.
Primary research involves e-mail interactions, telephonic interviews as well as face-to-face
interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies.
The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to:
Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, marketing/product managers, market intelligence
managers and national sales managers;
Hospital stores, laboratories, pharmacies, distributors and para-medics;
Outside experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts specializing in
specific medical equipment markets; and
Key opinion leaders: physicians and surgeons specializing in different therapeutic areas
corresponding to different kinds of medical equipment.
126.96.36.199 Epidemiology-based Forecasting
The forecasting model used at GBI Research makes use of epidemiology data gathered from
research publications and primary interviews with physicians to represent the treatment flow
patterns for individual diseases and therapies. The market for any disease segment is directly
proportional to the volume of units sold and the price per unit.
Sales = Volume of Units sold Price per Unit
The volume of units sold is calculated on the average dosage regimen for that disease, duration of
treatment and number of patients who are prescribed drug treatment (prescription population).
Prescription population is calculated as the percentage of population diagnosed with a disease
(diagnosis population). Diagnosis population is the population diagnosed with a disease expressed
as a percentage of population that is treatment seeking treatment (Treatment seeking population).
Prevalence of a disease (diseased population) is the percentage of the total population who suffer
from a disease/condition.
Data on treatment seeking rate, diagnosis rate and prescription rate, if unavailable from research
publications, are gathered from interviews with physicians and are used to estimate the patient
volumes for the disease under consideration. Therapy uptake and compliance data are fitted in the
forecasting model to account for patient switching and compliance behavior.
To account for differences in patient affordability of drugs across various geographies,
macroeconomic data such as inflation and GDP; and healthcare indicators such as healthcare
spending, insurance coverage and average income per individual are used.
Average cost of treatment is calculated using product purchase frequency and the average price of
the therapy. Product purchase frequency is calculated from the dosage data available for the
therapies and drug prices are gathered from public sources.
The epidemiology-based forecasting model uses a bottom-up methodology and it makes use of
estimations in the absence of data from research publications. Such estimations may result in a
final market value different from the actual value. To correct this ‘gap’ the forecasting model uses
‘triangulation’ with the help of base year sales data (from company annual reports, internal and
external databases) and sales estimations.
Analogous forecasting methodology
Analogous forecasting methodology is used to account for introduction of new products, patent
expiries of branded products and subsequent introduction of generics. Historic data for new
product launches and generics penetration are used to arrive at robust forecasts. increase or
decrease of prevalence rates, treatment seeking rate, diagnosis rate and prescription rate are
fitted into the forecasting model to estimate market growth rate.
The proprietary model enables GBI Research to account for the impact of individual drivers and
restraints in the growth of the market. The year of impact and the extent of impact are quantified in
the forecasting model to provide close-to-accurate data sets.
The diseased population for any indication is the prevalence. The prevalence rates are usually
obtained from various journals, online publications, sources such as World Health Organization
(WHO) or associations and foundation websites for that particular disease.
Treatment Seeking Population
Treatment seeking population is always calculated as a percentage of prevalence. The number
denotes the actual number of patients who are going to hospitals to get diagnosis report for any disease. The treatment seeking population is primarily driven by the onset of symptoms, patient
awareness and the severity of the disease.
Out of the patients who undergo diagnostic tests to confirm a disease, only a few people get
diagnosed with the disease. This number as a percentage of treatment seeking population is the
diagnosis rate. The diagnosis population is primarily driven by the sensitivity of the diagnostic
tests, state-of-the-art technology, patient access to these diagnostic tests and cost of the
For any disease, multiple treatment options exist. For example, in cancer treatment various
treatment options such as surgery, radiation therapy, and drug therapy are available. Prescription
population is defined as the number of patients who are prescribed drug therapy. This is calculated
as a percentage of diagnosis population. The prescription population is primarily driven by the age
at which the disease is diagnosed, the disease stage, patient health and cost of drug treatment.
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